Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension.

Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Research Abstract Details 

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Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Abstract Text:

, ,Mae O Gordon,Valter Torri,Stefano Miglior,Julia A Beiser,Irene Floriani,J Philip Miller,Feng Gao,Ingrid Adamsons,Davide Poli,Ralph B D'Agostino,Michael A Kass, , ,Mae O Gordon,Valter Torri,Stefano Miglior,Julia A Beiser,Irene Floriani,J Philip Miller,Feng Gao,Ingrid Adamsons,Davide Poli,Ralph B D'Agostino,Michael A Kass,

OBJECTIVE: To test the validity and generalizability of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in a large independent sample of untreated ocular hypertensive individuals and to develop a quantitative calculator to estimate the 5-year risk that an individual with ocular hypertension will develop POAG. DESIGN: A prediction model was developed from the observation group of the OHTS and then tested on the placebo group of the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS) using a z statistic to compare hazard ratios, a c statistic for discrimination, and a calibration chi2 for systematic overestimation/underestimation of predicted risk. The 2 study samples were pooled to increase precision and generalizability of a 5-year predictive model for developing POAG. PARTICIPANTS: The OHTS observation group (n = 819; 6.6 years' median follow-up) and EGPS placebo group (n = 500; 4.8 years' median follow-up). TESTING: Data were collected on demographic characteristics, medical history, ocular examination visual fields (VFs), and optic disc photographs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Development of reproducible VF abnormality or optic disc progression as determined by masked readers and attributed to POAG by a masked end point committee. RESULTS: The same predictors for the development of POAG were identified independently in both the OHTS observation group and the EGPS placebo group-baseline age, intraocular pressure, central corneal thickness, vertical cup-to-disc ratio, and Humphrey VF pattern standard deviation. The pooled multivariate model for the development of POAG had good discrimination (c statistic, 0.74) and accurate estimation of POAG risk (calibration chi2, 7.05). CONCLUSIONS: The OHTS prediction model was validated in the EGPS placebo group. A calculator to estimate the 5-year risk of developing POAG, based on the pooled OHTS-EGPS predictive model, has high precision and will be useful for clinicians and patients in deciding the frequency of tests and examinations during follow-up and advisability of initiating preventive treatment.

Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Publishing Authors By Initials

, ,MO Gordon,V Torri,S Miglior,JA Beiser,I Floriani,JP Miller,F Gao,I Adamsons,D Poli,RB D'Agostino,MA Kass, , ,MO Gordon,V Torri,S Miglior,JA Beiser,I Floriani,JP Miller,F Gao,I Adamsons,D Poli,RB D'Agostino,MA Kass,

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Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Journal Published:

PUBLICATION TYPE: Validation Studies

Journal: Ophthalmology

VOLUME: 114

Page Numbers: 10-9

Journal Abbreviation: Ophthalmology

ISSN: 1549-4713

DAY: 7

MONTH: 11

YEAR: 2006

Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Information

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LANGUAGE: eng

NlmUniqueID: 7802443

Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension. Keywords Mesh Terms:

KEYWORDS: Visual Fields

MESH TERMS: diagnosis

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Grant and Affiliation Information for Validated prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma in individuals with ocular hypertension.

AFFILIATION: OHTS Coordinating Center, Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Washington University School of Medicine, Box 8203, 660 South Euclid, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA. mae@vrcc.wustl.edu

Country: United States

AGENCY: United States NEI

GRANT: EY09341

ACRONYM: EY

MEDLINETA: Ophthalmology

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