Use of dynamic microsimulation to predict disease progression in patients with pneumonia-related sepsis.

Use of dynamic microsimulation to predict disease progression in patients with pneumonia-related sepsis. Research Abstract Details 

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Use of dynamic microsimulation to predict disease progression in patients with pneumonia-related sepsis. Abstract Text:

Saka,Jennifer E Kreke,Andrew J Schaefer,Chung-Chou H Chang,Mark S Roberts,Derek C Angus, , Saka,Jennifer E Kreke,Andrew J Schaefer,Chung-Chou H Chang,Mark S Roberts,Derek C Angus, ,

INTRODUCTION: Sepsis is the leading cause of death in critically ill patients and often affects individuals with community-acquired pneumonia. To overcome the limitations of earlier mathematical models used to describe sepsis and predict outcomes, we designed an empirically based Monte Carlo model that simulates the progression of sepsis in hospitalized patients over a 30-day period. METHODS: The model simulates changing health over time, as represented by the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, as a function of a patient's previous health state and length of hospital stay. We used data from patients enrolled in the GenIMS (Genetic and Inflammatory Markers of Sepsis) study to calibrate the model, and tested the model's ability to predict deaths, discharges, and daily SOFA scores over time using different algorithms to estimate the natural history of sepsis. We evaluated the stability of the methods using bootstrap sampling techniques. RESULTS: Of the 1,888 patients originally enrolled, most were elderly (mean age 67.77 years) and white (80.72%). About half (47.98%) were female. Most were relatively ill, with a mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III score of 56 and Pneumonia Severity Index score of 73.5. The model's estimates of the daily pattern of deaths, discharges, and SOFA scores over time were not statistically different from the actual pattern when information about how long patients had been ill was included in the model (P = 0.91 to 0.98 for discharges; P = 0.26 to 0.68 for deaths). However, model estimates of these patterns were different from the actual pattern when the model did not include data on the duration of illness (P < 0.001 for discharges; P = 0.001 to 0.040 for deaths). Model results were stable to bootstrap validation. CONCLUSION: An empiric simulation model of sepsis can predict complex longitudinal patterns in the progression of sepsis, most accurately by models that contain data representing both organ-system levels of and duration of illness. This work supports the incorporation into mathematical models of disease of the clinical intuition that the history of disease in an individual matters, and represents an advance over several prior simulation models that assume a constant rate of disease progression.

Use of dynamic microsimulation to predict disease progression in patients with pneumonia-related sepsis. Publishing Authors By Initials

G Saka,JE Kreke,AJ Schaefer,CC Chang,MS Roberts,DC Angus, ,G Saka,JE Kreke,AJ Schaefer,CC Chang,MS Roberts,DC Angus, ,

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Use of dynamic microsimulation to predict disease progression in patients with pneumonia-related sepsis. Journal Published:

PUBLICATION TYPE: Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov

Journal: Critical care (London, England)

VOLUME: 11

Page Numbers: R65

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ISSN: 1466-609X

DAY: 16

MONTH: 01

YEAR: 2007

Use of dynamic microsimulation to predict disease progression in patients with pneumonia-related sepsis. Information

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LANGUAGE: eng

NlmUniqueID: 9801902

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Grant and Affiliation Information for Use of dynamic microsimulation to predict disease progression in patients with pneumonia-related sepsis.

AFFILIATION: Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, 3700 OHara St, 3700 Benedum Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA. gorkems@ie.pitt.edu

Country: England

AGENCY: United States NIGMS

GRANT: R01 GM61992

ACRONYM: GM

MEDLINETA: Crit Care

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