Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia.

Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia. Research Abstract Details 

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Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia. Abstract Text:

Karina Razali,Hla Hla Thein,Jane Bell,Mark Cooper-Stanbury,Kate Dolan,Greg Dore,Jacob George,John Kaldor,Maria Karvelas,Jiong Li,Lisa Maher,Sharyn McGregor,Margaret Hellard,Fiona Poeder,Julianne Quaine,Kim Stewart,Helen Tyrrell,Martin Weltman,Owen Westcott,Alex Wodak,Matthew Law,Karina Razali,Hla Hla Thein,Jane Bell,Mark Cooper-Stanbury,Kate Dolan,Greg Dore,Jacob George,John Kaldor,Maria Karvelas,Jiong Li,Lisa Maher,Sharyn McGregor,Margaret Hellard,Fiona Poeder,Julianne Quaine,Kim Stewart,Helen Tyrrell,Martin Weltman,Owen Westcott,Alex Wodak,Matthew Law,

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Australia is predominantly transmitted through injecting drug use. A reduction in the heroin supply in Australia in late 2000 and early 2001 may have impacted the number of injecting drug users (IDUs) and consequently the number of new hepatitis C infections in Australia. This paper updates estimates of HCV incidence and prevalence between 1960 and 2005. METHODS: Simple mathematical models were used to estimate HCV incidence among IDUs, migrants to Australia from high HCV-prevalence countries, and other HCV exposure groups. Recent trends in numbers of IDUs were based on indicators of injecting drug use. A natural history of HCV model was applied to estimate the prevalence of HCV in the population. RESULTS: The modelled best estimate of past HCV incidence showed a consistent increasing rate of HCV infections to a peak of 14,000 new seroconversions in 1999, followed by a decline in 2001-2002 coincident with the decline in heroin availability. HCV incidence was estimated to be 9700 (lower and upper limits of 6600 and 13,200) in 2005. Of these, 88.7% were estimated to be through injecting drug use, 7.2% among migrants and 4.1% through other transmission routes. An estimated 264,000 (lower and upper limits of 206,000 and 318,000) people were HCV antibody positive in 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Mathematical models suggest that HCV incidence in Australia decreased from a peak of 14,000 new infections in 1999 to 9700 new infections in 2005, largely attributable to a reduction in injecting drug use. The numbers of people living with HCV in Australia is, however, estimated to continue to increase.

Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia. Publishing Authors By Initials

K Razali,HH Thein,J Bell,M Cooper-Stanbury,K Dolan,G Dore,J George,J Kaldor,M Karvelas,J Li,L Maher,S McGregor,M Hellard,F Poeder,J Quaine,K Stewart,H Tyrrell,M Weltman,O Westcott,A Wodak,M Law,K Razali,HH Thein,J Bell,M Cooper-Stanbury,K Dolan,G Dore,J George,J Kaldor,M Karvelas,J Li,L Maher,S McGregor,M Hellard,F Poeder,J Quaine,K Stewart,H Tyrrell,M Weltman,O Westcott,A Wodak,M Law,

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Modelling the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Australia. Journal Published:

PUBLICATION TYPE: Journal Article

Journal: Drug and alcohol dependence

VOLUME: 91

Page Numbers: 228-35

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ISSN: 0376-8716

DAY: 31

MONTH: 07

YEAR: 2007

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LANGUAGE: eng

NlmUniqueID: 7513587

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AFFILIATION: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2010, Australia. krazali@nchecr.unsw.edu.au

Country: Ireland

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MEDLINETA: Drug Alcohol Depend

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