Interval estimates for epidemic thresholds in two-sex network models.

Interval estimates for epidemic thresholds in two-sex network models. Research Abstract Details 

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Interval estimates for epidemic thresholds in two-sex network models. Abstract Text:

Mark S Handcock,James Holland Jones,

Epidemic thresholds in network models of heterogeneous populations characterized by highly right-skewed contact distributions can be very small. When the population is above the threshold, an epidemic is inevitable and conventional control measures to reduce the transmissibility of a pathogen will fail to eradicate it. We consider a two-sex network model for a sexually transmitted disease which assumes random mixing conditional on the degree distribution. We derive expressions for the basic reproductive number (R(0)) for one and heterogeneous two-population in terms of characteristics of the degree distributions and transmissibility. We calculate interval estimates for the epidemic thresholds for stochastic process models in three human populations based on representative surveys of sexual behavior (Uganda, Sweden, USA). For Uganda and Sweden, the epidemic threshold is greater than zero with high confidence. For the USA, the interval includes zero. We discuss the implications of these findings along with the limitations of epidemic models which assume random mixing.

Interval estimates for epidemic thresholds in two-sex network models. Publishing Authors By Initials

MS Handcock,JH Jones,

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Interval estimates for epidemic thresholds in two-sex network models. Journal Published:

PUBLICATION TYPE: Research Support, N.I.H., Extr

Journal: Theoretical population biology

VOLUME: 70

Page Numbers: 125-34

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ISSN: 0040-5809

DAY: 6

MONTH: 04

YEAR: 2006

Interval estimates for epidemic thresholds in two-sex network models. Information

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LANGUAGE: eng

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Grant and Affiliation Information for Interval estimates for epidemic thresholds in two-sex network models.

AFFILIATION: Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-4320, USA. handcock@stat.washington.edu

Country: United States

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MEDLINETA: Theor Popul Biol

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