Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science.

Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science. Research Abstract Details 

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Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science. Abstract Text:

Peter R Killeen,

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing does not yield the probability of the null or its alternative and, therefore, cannot logically ground scientific decisions. The decision theory proposed here calculates the expected utility of an effect on the basis of (1) the probability of replicating it and (2) a utility function on its size. It takes significance tests--which place all value on the replicability of an effect and none on its magnitude--as a special case, one in which the cost of a false positive is revealed to be an order of magnitude greater than the value of a true positive. More realistic utility functions credit both replicability and effect size, integrating them for a single index of merit. The analysis incorporates opportunity cost and is consistent with alternate measures of effect size, such as r2 and information transmission, and with Bayesian model selection criteria. An alternate formulation is functionally equivalent to the formal theory, transparent, and easy to compute.

Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science. Publishing Authors By Initials

PR Killeen,

For similar natural sciences: science research abstracts see: natural sciences: science research

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Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science. Journal Published:

PUBLICATION TYPE: Research Support, U.S. Gov't,

Journal: Psychonomic bulletin & review

VOLUME: 13

Page Numbers: 549-62

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ISSN: 1069-9384

DAY: 3

MONTH: Aug

YEAR: 2006

Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science. Information

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LANGUAGE: eng

NlmUniqueID: 9502924

Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science. Keywords Mesh Terms:

KEYWORDS: Science

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Grant and Affiliation Information for Beyond statistical inference: a decision theory for science.

AFFILIATION: Department of Psychology, Arizona State University, Box 1104, Tempe, AZ 85287-1104, USA. killeen@asu.edu

Country: United States

AGENCY: United States NIMH

GRANT: 1R01MH066860

ACRONYM: MH

MEDLINETA: Psychon Bull Rev

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