Global warming

I see a great many articles such as this one;
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which vigorously point out that there is a global warming trend
well underway. I have been searching for some insights into the
cause of this trend. Is it just a normal progression along the
ice age cycles, or is it truly a result of human intervention?

Can anyone point me to some meaningful information on the ice age
cycles that have occurred over the geologic past. It seems this
planet has gone through these ice age - global warming cycles
about every 20,000 years, and the global warming we are now
observing is reasonably congruent with the cyclical variations
that occurred well before humans had any part of it.

How suddenly can we expect the global warming to end and a drop
into a deep ice age part of the cycle occur? Is this just a few
years into the future, or a few thousand years?

Dear Gordon:

"Gordon" <[Only registered users see links. ]> wrote in message
news:[Only registered users see links. ]...

You'll find that cases can be made either way.

Yes it appears that we averted the most recent glaciation period.
Yes it appears that global warming is occuring. No it is not
clear that a 0.05% increase in global CO2 emissions (if that) due
to the activities of Man is any significant effect. Yes the
butterfly effect (eg. chaotic system responses to an upset) could
magnify any effect into a global change. Yes the Sun is a
variable star, and its emissions of energy vary. Change happens,
and Mankind will adapt or be replaced.

If it gets bad, we can always spray finely-divided water in the
upper atmosphere, in excess of what we do with high flying
aircraft ("global dimming" if you want to do a search on the
concept).

David A. Smith

"N:dlzc D:aol T:com (dlzc)" <N: dlzc1 D:cox T:[Only registered users see links. ]> wrote in
message news:EevJe.290176$Qo.146693@fed1read01...

FWIW,
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shows that the mean sea level has risen about 20 cm in the past century.
[Chart at [Only registered users see links. ] ]
It *also* shows that the mean sea level has risen about 120 m in the last
16,000 years, an *average* rate of 75 cm per century, most of which occurred
during the period *before* we had any cities or 'civilization.'

In terms of global warming effects, things have actually been comparatively
calm since we settled down and started farming, except for the occasional
Plinian volcanic eruption with the power (VEI 5 or greater) to cool the
globe for a while:
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You are absolutely correct, David. Change happens. It does no good the try
to blame it on anybody or anything in particular. The smart thing to do is
to learn enough to figure out what is *going* to happen and plan, prepare,
and adapt for it.

As my late grandmother used to say - "Adapt or Die."


Tom Davidson
Richmond, VA

"N:dlzc D:aol T:com (dlzc)" <N: dlzc1 D:cox T:[Only registered users see links. ]> wrote in
message news:EevJe.290176$Qo.146693@fed1read01...

For the 3 days after 9/11, when all air traffic over US was suspended, the
mean diurnal temperature range increased by over 1 degree. Where contrails
would normally be most frequent, the change in mean DTR was greatest.

I don't think its clear yet whether contrails are a cause or a cure for
'global warming' - I suspect there is a case for them being associated
with a reduction in night time heat loss which might actually be worse than
any assoociated reduction in daytime insolation.

Dear OG:

"OG" <[Only registered users see links. ].uk> wrote in message
news:[Only registered users see links. ]...

I personally hold high altitude water-producing combustion
responsible for a very large share of whatever reduction in ozone
levels are actually attributable to Mankind. One very important
pathway to the production of ozone is using N2* as a "temporary
placeholder" for an oxygen atom, until visible light and passing
O2 molecule accepts it. Water at altitude provides a more stable
result than ozone, namely NOx. And air-breathing engines consume
oxygen to boot, reducing the availability of oxygen for both
scission and recombination. Migration of gasses from lower to
upper atmosphere is not terribly fast. Horizontal transfer is
quite fast... I recall that White Sands put a missle up some
years ago, and something about the exhaust from it made for a
most beautiful pre-sunrise light show, that was easily hundreds
of miles wide... and dissipated in tens of minutes.

However much science supports me in that... ;>)

No, I don't think artificially-produced contrails are a good
idea.

David A. Smith

Dear tadchem:

"tadchem" <[Only registered users see links. ]> wrote in message
news:[Only registered users see links. ]...
....

<POKING A LITTLE FUN>
Then why in the world did you move to a low-lying area? Edgar
Cayce gave Virginia the blessing for the lifetime of his
child(ren)... not eternity!
<END POKING>

David A. Smith

"N:dlzc D:aol T:com (dlzc)" <N: dlzc1 D:cox T:[Only registered users see links. ]> wrote in
message news:BwAJe.295267$Qo.67285@fed1read01...


100 m above current MSL is hardly 'low-lying'.

The Holy Saint Edgar blessed Virginia Beach. He also said that Atlantis
would rise again in the 1960's.

Frankly. I would be more concerned about a little earthquake on La Palma.


Tom Davidson
Richmond, VA

"N:dlzc D:aol T:com (dlzc)" <N: dlzc1 D:cox T:[Only registered users see links. ]> schrieb im
Newsbeitrag news:EevJe.290176$Qo.146693@fed1read01...

No definitively not. The strong temp increase is not explainable with ice
time changes.
It is man made. But of shure the earth had much wormer times than now.

Now it can happen that within a few years the ocean level increases by about
5 meters.
In the period of one century or more it can be 35 meters (some say 65
meters) if the trend is not stopped. If all ice on the globe would be
molten, we dont know where the average temperature saturates. Too much
unknowns. So this probably should us more give a bad feeling because we do
not know where the journey goes.

"Josef Matz" <[Only registered users see links. ]> wrote in message
news:42f776e8$0$6977$[Only registered users see links. ]...


Is 'ice time' measured with a snow-filled hourglass?


So who were the 'men' who made those other global warming events occur?

about

Take a look at the sea level record:
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From 14,500 BP to about 14,000 BP the most dramatic increase in sea level
since the Pleistocene occurred. Mean sea level rose about 30 m in 500
years. At that rate a 5 m increase would take only about 80 years.


Is there really that much ice left in the polar regions? The remaining ice
in temperate and tropical zones is negligible. I smell hyperbole here.


Look at Pacific Palisades, California:
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The two middle tiers are ancient coastlines recording the highest levels the
Pacific ocean has reached in many millions of years.


If I 'got a bad feeling' every time I didn't 'know where the journey goes,'
I'd dread getting out of bed every morning.

Carpe diem! Carpe mundi!

Grow yourself a backbone. Become a vertebrate. Learn to breathe air. It
will make it easier to climb out of the ooze into tomorrow.


Tom Davidson
Richmond, VA

"tadchem" <[Only registered users see links. ]> schrieb im Newsbeitrag
news:[Only registered users see links. ]...
ice

No it is not. But the CO2 emissions are manmade, waste of energy especially
in the USA.
We are at the end of a small warm time in between ice times. Normally we
should expect a temp decrease.


As i told you the usage of fossile energies (coal, gas oil) since the
industrialisation 1850 is about the beginning of it)


The 5 meters are based on the assumption that the shelf ice on soth pole can
melt rather fast.
Shelf ice is ice which lies in flat ocean regions.


I doubt on that globally. Localy also the country can move up and downwards.
Are you shure it was a global change ? So if this is true we can see what
might be the future ?

ice

Melting of north pole is not increasing the water level. South pole and
green land (5m).are main contributions. In a scenario with full molten ice
also the thermal expansion coefficient of water has effects. Maybe your
curve shows what happens if all ice is molten with respect to this the
thermal expansion coefficient ? Then you would have a model for whats going
on then. It would be interesting to have the environment temperatures of
such epochs.

[Only registered users see links. ]
oast%20by%20californiaimage.htm
the

Also the continents may rise and fall, but that of shure can not happen
within a few hundred years.

do
goes,'

No my feeling os not bad. Some countries might vanish from the country map,
other regions
might become usable. But old countries like Bangla Desh, Netherlands might
change to
some towers looking out of the water. New York or Boston for example will
also look a little otherwise than today if sea level 35 meters higher. And
even Berlin will be located on the coast.


The environmental changes (deserts, storms) will cause millions over
millions of victims.


Why must you make such negative suggestions. Your country is also affected
or ?